In the fascinating and highly strategic world of football betting, punters often gravitate toward betting on the favorite, also known as the "upper" side in handicap betting. This makes sense at first glance the favorite is the stronger team and therefore perceived as more likely to win. However, among seasoned and professional bettors, there’s a popular saying: “Follow the underdog to find value.” That’s because betting on the underdog, or the “lower” side when done with precision and research, can often yield greater returns and expose value that most casual bettors overlook.
This best football tips for today will dive deep into everything you need to know about the underdog bet in football betting. We will explore what underdog bets are, why they can be a smart choice, how to effectively place them, and real-life strategies to increase your success rate. If you’ve been stuck betting only on the favorites or are simply looking to diversify your betting approach, understanding how to correctly analyze and wager on the underdog could be your key to unlocking better profits.
Let’s explore this lesser-known but highly rewarding area of football betting, where risk meets strategy, and surprises often turn into success.
I. What Is the Underdog in Football Betting?
In football betting, the term refers to the team that is considered weaker or less likely to win in a particular matchup. These are usually teams with poorer current form, a less impressive squad, or a weaker historical record compared to their opponent. In short, they are the teams that most casual bettors would naturally bet against.
Bookmakers determine which team is the underdog by analyzing a variety of metrics, including team performance, recent results, player availability, home/away factors, and more. The underdog is then “given” a head start in the form of a handicap, which varies depending on how big the perceived gap is between the two teams.
On betting boards, underdog teams are usually displayed using colors such as gray, light blue, or black to differentiate them from the favored (upper) team, which might be shown in red. The concept of underdog and favorite is deeply tied to Asian Handicap betting systems, which aim to level the playing field between teams of different strengths.
The most common handicap values for underdog teams include +0.25, +0.5, and +1. These values represent the number of goals the underdog team is “given” before the match even begins, and they directly affect how the outcome of the bet is determined.
It is a common misconception that betting on the underdog is always riskier. While it's true that underdogs statistically lose more matches, the payouts and value offered by underdog bets often compensate for the lower win percentage. That is why many professional bettors actively look for opportunities to back the underdog especially when the public has heavily favored the top team, creating a market imbalance.

II. Why Should You Consider Betting on the Underdog?
According to expert analysis from professional bookmakers and betting advisors such as those from, underdog bets can be surprisingly profitable especially if you understand how to evaluate match conditions and exploit betting odds effectively.
Here are the key reasons why underdog bets are worth considering:
1. Higher Payouts
Because the underdog is perceived as less likely to win, bookmakers offer higher odds for these bets. This means that a single successful underdog bet can yield significantly more profit than betting on a favorite. Even if your win percentage is lower overall, your net profit may still be higher.
2. Market Overreaction
Many casual bettors rush to bet on the favorite, driving down the odds and creating value on the underdog. This public bias can distort the true probabilities of a match, creating opportunities for informed bettors to capitalize.
3. Handicap Advantage
In Asian handicap betting, underdogs are given a head start. This means they don’t necessarily need to win the match outright often, a draw or even a narrow loss is enough for your bet to win or at least push.
4. Strategic Flexibility
Betting on the underdog allows for more strategic daily betting tips app styles, such as arbitrage betting, value betting, and contrarian betting. These strategies can be especially useful in leagues where teams are evenly matched, or when betting on home underdogs.
III. How to Bet on the Underdog Correctly — Step-by-Step Guide
1. Betting on the Underdog with a 0.5 Goal Handicap
This is one of the most popular and commonly used handicap bets involving underdog teams. The rules are simple:
If you bet on the underdog team with a +0.5 handicap, you win the bet if the underdog wins or draws the match.
You lose only if the underdog team loses the match.
This type of bet offers a good safety net for teams that may not win but are capable of holding their opponent to a draw.
Example:
If Team A gives Team B a 0.5 goal handicap, and you bet on Team B (the underdog), then:
If Team B wins or draws, you win the bet.
If Team B loses, you lose the bet.
2. Betting on the Underdog with a 0.25 (1/4) Goal Handicap
This type of bet is used in matches where the difference in team strength is minimal. The handicap of +0.25 means your stake is split in half:
Half goes to a 0 handicap.
The other half goes to a 0.5 handicap.
If the underdog draws, you win half the bet and get the other half back. If they lose, you lose the whole bet. If they win, you win in full.
This is often considered a safer type of bet when you're unsure if the underdog can win but believe they can hold their ground.
3. Betting on the Underdog with a 1 Goal Handicap
This is used when the stronger team is expected to dominate. In this case, the underdog is given a 1-goal advantage.
IV. Pro Tips and Expert Strategies for Betting on the Underdog with High Winning Potential
1. Gather and Analyze Pre-Match Information
Before placing any bet on the underdog, you should conduct thorough research. Consider:
Team form over the last 5–10 matches
Injuries and suspensions
Home vs. away performance
Head-to-head history
Motivation (e.g., playing to avoid relegation or to win the league)
2. Don’t Trust the Handicap Numbers Blindly
Bookmakers often use misleading handicaps to sway public betting. A strong team with a low handicap might be a trap, while a weak team with a high handicap might be undervalued. Always cross-check with real team statistics.
3. Stay Mentally Disciplined
The underdog bet requires patience. Odds may shift due to public betting behavior. Don’t panic if the odds start to move against your pick if your research is solid, stay the course.
4. Contrarian Betting Go Against the Crowd
Many punters prefer playing it safe by betting on the favorite. However, value often lies in going against the public. Being a contrarian means you're likely to find inflated odds on the underdog, especially when public sentiment overwhelmingly favors one side.
5. Use Long-Term Thinking
Don’t expect to win every underdog bet. The goal is not perfection but profitability over time. Accept the natural variance and focus on value. Over the course of a season, underdog betting can outperform favorite-based strategies.
V. Conclusion
In this handicap betting explained football guide, we have explored everything you need to know about underdog betting in football. While betting on the favorite may seem like the safer route, seasoned bettors understand that underdog bets when chosen strategically and based on solid analysis can be far more lucrative in the long run.
We’ve defined what an underdog is, discussed why betting on them can be profitable, walked you through the most common underdog handicap types, and provided detailed strategies for increasing your chances of winning. Betting on the underdog is not about blind luck or guesswork it's about reading between the lines, spotting value where others don’t, and using a disciplined, research-backed approach.