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Tatiana Stanovaya, senior fellow at the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center and founder of R.Politik, which provides news and analysis on Russia, argues that while Putin does not view a meeting with Zelensky as critical in a war that for Russia is more about confronting the West than Ukraine, he could still take the meeting if he thought it would be successful.
“The key demands must be on the table and Zelensky must be ok to talk about it,” she told CNN in an interview Tuesday. As of now Zelensky has ruled out those key demands, which include giving up territory Ukraine still controls. But Putin, she argued, sees Trump as the key to changing that.
In a photo posted by the White House on X, US President Donald Trump speaks on the phone with Russian President Vladimir Putin on Monday, August 18.
In a photo posted by the White House on X, US President Donald Trump speaks on the phone with Russian President Vladimir Putin on Monday, August 18. White House photo
“Trump is seen as an enabler of (the) Russian vision of the settlement and for that the United States is supposed to work with Kyiv to push them to be more flexible, to be more open to Russian demands.”
Stanovaya suggested Russia may try to keep the US on side by doing what Ushakov suggested, and suggesting a new round of Istanbul talks, but with a higher-level delegation, perhaps including Ushakov himself, and foreign minister Lavrov. But he won’t risk an “ambush” by sitting down with Zelensky only to find all his demands rejected.
Trump ended his day on Monday by posting on Truth Social that he “began the arrangements for a meeting … between President Putin and President Zelensky.” By the time he had woken up and dialed into the breakfast show on Fox News Tuesday morning, it seemed to have dawned on him this was not a done deal. “I sort of set it up with Putin and Zelensky, and you know, they’re the ones that have to call the shots. We’re, we’re 7,000 miles away,” he said.
Putin has no reason to acquiesce at this point. Having made zero concessions, he has been rewarded with a grand summit in Alaska, the dropping of a demand by Trump to sign onto a ceasefire before a peace talks, and the crumbling of all sanctions ultimatums to date. Having slightly dialed down the scale of nightly drone attacks on Ukrainian cities so far in August, Russia ramped them up again Monday night, firing 270 drones and 10 missiles. If Trump’s pressure on Zelensky hasn’t yet yielded the results Moscow wants, there’s always military force to fall back on.
The only wild card for Russia at this point is who Trump will blame when this latest peace effort fails.
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